Archive for the ‘Books’ Category

I recently read Run Less, Run Faster after it was recommended by a friend. It sets out a training programme that emphasises getting rid of “junk milage” and making the runs you do do more effective.

In general it seems to have a lot of good stuff in it, and if I wanted to take my running more seriously, it seems like a great programme to follow. As it is, I will take some ideas from it without taking the whole package.

It seems mostly written for people who run marathons. There is plenty of adjustments for 5km and 10km races and all the tables discuss these values, as well as values for quite slow runners (a lot slower than me even) but even so I feel like it is really for people who dedicate their entire lives to running. I guess that should be obviously from a scheme that advocates five workouts a week. It certainly is not a book targeted as casual runners, or anyone who’s primary purpose is fitness rather than competitive running.

It is filled with jargon. Maybe if you are a serious runner you will understand it all, but a lot of it is lost on me and I have had to look quite a few terms up.

Some of it seems cautious. It talks about speaking to a doctor before beginning a training programme. Perhaps this is good advice if you have health issues, but I am pretty sure that the overwhelming majority of doctors will tell overwhelming majority of people “yes, of course you should exercise!” And as Chris H has pointed out previously, if you are a healthy 20-something year old, you don’t really need to train for a 10km. If you already do regular exercise, you will just be able to do it. Even by accident. Again though, that goes back to whether you just want to run it, or whether you want to run it competitively.

I like the way they mix up the format of the book. Some of it is standard flowing text, other parts are delivered as a question and answer. They also intersperse of all this with letters from people telling them how amazing they are. This I find odd and uncomfortable. I am always suspicious about texts that spend so much time openly stating how good they are rather than offering real content.

Overall, I think if you want to run competitively, this is a great book to read. Otherwise, it probably is not that useful.

Terry Pratchett’s 26th Discworld novel is Thief of Time. It has a mixed cast of characters including The Auditors, Death, Susan Sto Helit and best of all, Lu-Tze.

It definitely is not one of my favourite Discworld novels. While I do like the History Monks, I am not a big fan of the Auditors. I found it dragged a bit which lead to be losing focus and struggling to follow some of it.

Two of the books I have read recently, Everything Is Obvious and The Signal and the Noise, made references to Burton Malkiel’s book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. They pointed out that the stock market is entirely unpredictable and therefore investment bankers are just guessing. I was curious to read more, so I picked up the book itself.

An index tracks stock market movements. For example the FTSE 100 tracks 100 companies on the London Stock Exchange, while the Standard & Poors (S&P) 500 or Russell 3000 track a far more broad range of stock prices. These therefore provide a good indication of whether the stock market moves up or down.

Now take a mutual fund – these are professionally managed funds that the general public put their money in for someone to manage on their behalf. The benchmark here is not whether they can grow their investment, but whether they can grow their investment at a better rate than the index (because the stock market generally moves up anyway). If they were just guessing, you would expect 50% of mutual funds to beat the index, and the other 50% to fail, in both cases just due to chance.

However, the research, as discussed at length in A Random Walk Down Wall Street, shows that only 40% of mutual funds can beat the index! This is not just guessing – this is worse than guessing. Professional investment managers not only do not add any value to the funds they are managing, they actually subtract value.

You could make the case that there are just a lot of bad fund managers. However, the research refutes this too. As Malkiel describes, if you take the top performing funds over a five year period they almost invariably fail to beat the index over the next five year period.

This should not actually be that surprising. The Wall Street Journal has long shown that throwing darts at the stock listings produces a better return than the experts; a noticeably better return once you adjust for risk. To see it in practice (I include this as an anecdote to make the facts more believable) just watch the BBC documentary Million Dollar Traders in which eight complete notices only lose 2.5% in a period where their multi-millionaire master-of-trading coach loses 5%.

Of course it is hard to believe. Why are all these people employed if they add no value? That is a fact I find hard to reconcile. Surely if we are talking about efficient markets, at least one bank would have realised they could fire all these traders and replace them with monkeys? Counter arguments to this suggest that the average trader actually earns a pittance, and that because it is in the interest of traders (justifying their own job) and brokers (getting rich of the transaction fees from all this needless trainers) to maintain the illusion that they actually do something, the industry keeps selling these products to the general public who simply don’t realise.

The evidence, at least if Malkiel is to be believed, is clear. You should invest all your money in an index tracker with the lowest fee you can find. That produces the most consistent returns compared with a mutual fund that charges you higher fees to produce a lower return. Nate Silver says the same thing.

In the final part of the book, Malkiel goes on offer some investment advice for those who do not want to use an index fund. He also hints that he picks individual stocks too. This is odd as it goes against a lot of what the evidence he has presented says, but is consistent with what the psychology says – that we have a really hard time accepting what the scientific evidence says when it contradicts our own pet theories, achievements and so called “common sense”.

The Truth is the 25th novel in Terry Pratchett’s Discworld series. It follows the adventures of William de Worde as he accidentally starts the first newspaper, The Ankh-Morpork Times.

Without a doubt, it has been my favourite novel so far. The pioneering spirit of free enterprise, the passion for reporting the news to the public and the almost-tangible smell of Ankh-Morpock that emanates from the pages makes for a powerful, if odorous, combination.

I do wonder as to what the sitcom element comes into play in making the stories enjoyable. In a sitcom, you get to know the characters and that is what makes the situations so funny (not because the situation itself is inherently hilarious on its own). Similarly, it could be that the earlier novels are just as good as the later ones, and if you read them the other way round, you would enjoy the earlier ones more. Or maybe not. Or maybe it is a combination of both.

Everything is obvious – once you know the answer. That is the suggestion put forward by Duncan J Watts in his book. Is is not available as an ebook, which is very annoying, so I had to read this one using paper. Like I am living in the nineties…

It was a phenomenal read. Watts first puts forward the case against common sense. Within the first twenty pages I felt like I could never trust myself to make a decision again. Luckily common sense is not the kind of thing that lets logic get in the way, as Watts explains.

He points out that common sense is not that common. If it was, we could all just think about a problem, and come to the same conclusion. But we do not. Common sense is built up from our experiences to explain how to deal with every day situations. That means that each of us has different common sense. Not to mention that many of our common sense rules are contradictory to each other.

This is a problem because when we try and solve a problem, we often use common sense. These are built on our experiences, which are different from other people’s experiences, hence are not directly translatable. One of the most extreme cases of this is that what is the obvious solution to a politician from a rich Western country is not the actual solution that impoverished third world countries actually need.

He then goes on to point out that when you realise you cannot trust your own common sense and go looking at lessons from history, these are useless too. History only plays out once, which as any statistician will tell you, is a pretty poor sample size. The iPod may have been a huge success while MiniDisc floundered, but was it due to Apple having a better strategy than Sony, or where they simply the victims of circumstances? The honest answer is, we will probably never know.

Finally he presents some solutions to the problems put forward. We need to be aware of our biases. We need to do things that we can test and measure scientifically. Sometimes however, this simply is not possible. In those situations, we are basically screwed…

Still, at least we know that now.

Everyone knows that the world sits on the back of four elephants. That are themselves standing on the back of a giant turtle. The elephants themselves are also pretty big. That is just how it is. Obviously it would be nonsense to suggest there was once a fifth elephant. Yet some people actually believe that!

In the 24th novel of Terry Pratchett’s Discworld series, Sam Vimes travels to Ãœberwald to take care of some sensitive negotiations. In the usual way that Sam Vimes deals with things. Obviously a recipe for success.

It was a really good novel. While I generally prefer the goings-on of Ankh-Morpork, it was nice to get out and about a little to explore some more of the Discworld. You can’t beat a good underground dwarf fortress. Well, maybe goblins can. But they are still really cool.

Carpe Jugulum is the twenty-third novel in Terry Pratchett’s Discworld series. It features The Witches (you know, the maiden, the mother, and the other one) battling vampires trying to take over Lancre.

Despite my state school education I even managed to work out that “Carpe Jugulum” meant “seize the throat”.

Good novel, even if nobody used the phrase “that’s what being a witch is all about”. I also found out that Lancre even has a royal historian. It’s Shawn Ogg.

The twenty second novel in Terry Pratchett’s Discworld series is “The Last Continent”. It features Rinsewind and The Wizards, and is set in a continent that is not Australia, but is very much like it. It was brilliant. Discworld novels are usually funny, but a lot of this was laugh out loud funny. One of my favourite so far.

Today I’m pleased to announce the launch the 2nd edition of the Leeds Restaurant Guide. The new edition contains 14 brand new restaurant reviews and updates to another 18 entries. This takes the total reviews to 200! It is available from tomorrow from the Kindle Store.

Added

• Aria
• Belgrave Music Hall
• Cosmo
• Crowd of Favours
• Harry’s Bar & Brasserie
• Prezzo
• Rare
• Roast + Conch
• Shears Yard
• The Atlas Pub
• The Pit
• The Pour House
• The Tetley
• Trinity Kitchen

Updated

• Ambiente
• Angelica
• Baby Jupiter
• Bar Fibre
• Bewley’s
• Brasserie Blanc
• Brasserie Forty-Four
• Dish
• Ho’s
• La Tranquillite
• Las Iguanas
• Little Tokyo
• Malmaison
• Nation of Shopkeepers
• Primo Restaurante
• Red’s True Barbecue
• Sam’s Chop House
• Sukhothai

The 21st novel in the Discworld series is Jingo. It sees Ankh-Morpork face off against Klatch in a territorial dispute over a new island. It was not one of my favourites.

The plot is a bit predictable. The two armies line up to fight each other, but never actually do, which reminded me strongly of “Interesting Times“. Of course Lord Vetinari has a plan all along, as always. I am also left wondering just how many extra titles and promotions can possibly forced upon Samuel Vimes.