Posts Tagged ‘nfl’

The title card says:

Coverage will resume momentarily

Which, of course, means that coverage will return but only for a moment. Which sounds about right with the number of adverts they have in the US.

Ah, I was so close again! Last year I predicted a Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots Super Bowl (this was before the playoffs started, not before the regular season). The Denver Broncos beat the Patriots in the AFC championship game to knock me off by one.

This year, I predicted a Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots. Alas, the Atlantic Falcons convincingly beat the Packers in the NFC championship game to once again knock me off by one result.

Still, it made for a good Super Bowl. The first three quarters were so-so. It looked like the Falcons were firmly in control. But then Tom Brady did a Tom Brady and suddenly we had a game on.

Turn out was good too: six of us, not counting Elina, Venla and Kearny who were all here, but had gone to bed. For once, I managed to make a reasonable amount of food.

The term “franchise quarterback” is thrown around a lot in the NFL. There is an official meaning: teams can use their franchise tag to keep one key player at the club. However, more often when referring to QBs it is used to label quarterbacks who people expect to be at the teams for a long-run without any enforcement.

But who exactly is a franchise quarterback?

Philip Rivers, for example, is probably not the first person to come to mind when you think about the legendary quarterbacks of the NFL. However, Rivers has now been at the San Diego Chargers for 12 years. Only Tom Brady has been at his current club for longer.

Quarterback tenure in data

Below, I have tabled all of the NFL teams and their starting quarterbacks. I have included the year that they joined the club, and the team’s 2016 record.

Note that this is slightly different to the year they became starting quarterback. Many sat on the bench for the first season, for example. However, as it is a measure of how long the teams have kept them around, tracking it from the time they joined the team makes more sense in this instance.

It also does not include how long they have been in the NFL. Alex Smith, for example, was at the San Francisco 49ers for several years before moving on to the Kansas City Chiefs. Again, this makes more sense for what we are discussing.

The data

Discussion

I was expecting to see some correlation between the length of quarterback tenture and the results of each team. However, this was difficult to fine.

Sure, a lot of the play-off teams have the longest-standing quarterbacks. But then, the Chargers and Saints did not make the playoffs, despite having had the same quarterback for ten years.

Similarly, while there are a lot of rubbish teams with new quarterbacks, there are also the Cowboys, with one of the best records in the NFL, who only replaced Tony Romo, their quarterback since 2003, this year.

Here is the data in a graph:

There is nothing there. As with most of the stats in the NFL it probably suffers from the same critical problem: small sample size. When you only play 16 games per year, and those games only involve 11 minutes of actual play, almost anything can be luck.

When I started following American football, there was only one sensible choice for who to support: San Francisco is the Mecca of software development, so the 49ers it had to be. As it happens, much like the team’s namesake, I had struck gold. Jim Harbaugh was in charge and doing amazing things.

In Harbaugh’s first three seasons in charge, the 49ers went to the championship game in all of them. He was the first NFL head coach to do this. The second of those saw the 49ers go the Super Bowl and were just one play away from winning the thing.

Then, in 2014, the team went 8-8 and Jed York fired him.

Jim Tomsula was given the head coaching job, while the two highly commended coordinators, Vic Fangio and Greg Roman, both left the team too. The team went 5-11. Tomsula was fired and replaced with Chip Kelly. This had promise. Kelly had taken the Philadelphia Eagles from a 4-12 season to a 10-6 season in which they went to the championship game, before being fired a year later for a still-respectable 7-9 season.

But this year, things have been even worse.

Should Kelly be fired? Well, maybe. But it is worth noting Bill Walsh’s record. Bill Walsh is the greatest 49ers coach of all time. In his ten seasons in charge, he won three Super Bowls. Even Bill Belichick’s record with the Patriots is not that good. What was Walsh’s record the first year in charge? 2-14. It was the equal-worst season ever for the 49ers. But they stuck with it, and it turned out to be the best decision they ever made.

Over the past four years, I have very much enjoyed blogging on A Brit Talks Football. The feedback was positive, especially around the live game blogs. However, all good things must come to an end, and it is time for me to move on. Therefore, the site has closed.

If you still want updates from me, then you may wish to follow this blog, which is my personal one. It is about family, restaurants, technology and of course, the NFL. You can use the form below to subscribe to weekly updates, or follow me on Twitter at @chrisworfolk.

I was so close! In my pre-play-offs event invite to the Super Bowl party I predicted Patriots v Panthers. Denver beat New England in the AFC championship game to knock my predict off by one.

It was interesting to go into a Super Bowl with no real feelings either way. I think was leaning towards Carolina. They have really worked for it this season. However, it was nice to see Peyton Manning go out on a high (assuming he is going, my guess is that he is). In the end, Denver’s defence deserved it.

The half time show was okay. Chris Martin was really enjoying himself. I am not sure the rest of Coldplay were, possibly because they were probably miming on their instruments. Usually the light show is a big part of the half time show, but with it being in California this year, it was in the daylight. This took out a big part of it for me.

It was an okay weekend. The best game was the Packers at Cardinals. I almost fell asleep during the first game, so I decided not to try and stay up to 5am. Inevitability this resulted in me seeing the score before I could watch it on Monday.

Kansas City at New England

Solid performance by both of these teams. They consistently moved the ball and scored. In the end Brady and the Patriots just kept doing what they have been doing forever. You have to fancy them to get to Super Bowl 50 now, even with the injuries.

Green Bay at Arizona

Good game by both teams. Injuries are mounting up on the Packers’ receivers but they were still making plays. I thought their offensive line had an excellent game in particular. Palmer threw some questionable passes, but probably deserved the win.

Seattle at Carolina

This game was over almost before it began. Carolina got off to a dream start with two touchdowns within minutes. Full credit to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks who just kept playing and made an excellent come-back in the second half. It wasn’t enough though, meaning the Panthers have still only lost one game this season.

Pittsburg at Denver

Both of these times were uninspiring. It was just an endless series of field goals. Neither Roethlisberger nor Manning seemed at their best and so you have to wonder how either one of them would be able to outscore Brady in the championship game. Denver only really got it going when they started to really lean on the run. I don’t fancy their chances next week though.

Predictions

New England to beat Denver and Carolina to beat Arizona.

I want to start this post by complaining about the decencies of Sky Sports. They buy the coverage and black it out on GamePass, so I have to get Now TV. However, Sky has no catch-up facility, so when I miss it on Saturday it is blacked out on Sunday, so despite paying for both GamePass and Sky Sports I can’t watch the game! Sky are way behind BBC on this who have almost all their shows on iPlayer almost immediately.

Anyway…

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

If these teams play like they did last weekend, neither of them going anywhere. The Texans played an awful game and turned it over four times. That in itself is enough to write them off as a Super Bowl team. However, the fact that the Chiefs managed to convert all of that into only two field goals spells bad things for them too. If you turned the ball over to Tom Brady four times, would you expect to be six points down?

The Chiefs got it together in the second half though and their defence remained strong throughout. If they can play consistently like that, they will have more of a chance.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

This looked more like two heavy weight play off teams slugging it out. Again, it tooks the Bengals most of the game to get going though. Maybe this wouldn’t have been the case if they had made it to the division round and got Dalton back, but we’ll never know. It’s their own fault. How well with the Steelers do if Ben Roethlisberger is injured though?

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

It felt like a reasonable performance from each team. Two good defences slugging it out against each other. It’s hard to write the Seahawks off given the good form they are in. Déjà vu anyone?

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

The first quarter was not looking good for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers could not get anything going on offence. Their defence put in an excellent performance though and kept them in the game. Rogers got it going in the second quarter suggesting at the high wind may have had a really effect when you are paying into it.

Predictions

Patriots beating the Chiefs is the easiest to call. I am not sure I fancy the the road teams in any of them though. Panthers have had such a good season. Packers over the Cardinals maybe? Depends how quickly Aaron Rodgers can get it going. I suspect not fast enough, but if any road time is going to win, it will be the Packers, second to the Steelers over the Broncos.

For what I loosely described as a stag do, I headed down to Wembley Stadium for the Jets v Dolphin NFL game.

The seats were okay. We were in the premium club. I have previously wondered whether being in the lower tier would be better, but you do actually get a good view and can see the entire field. The only issue was that being on the north side we had the sun in our eyes, so being on the other side would have been a lot better. That disappeared after the 4th quarter though, and the view improved.

The merch was not run very well. We got there several hours early and they had already closed the NFL shop saying the queue was too big. Why they could not just run it throughout the entire game was unclear. They had other merch shops inside, but they had all run out of caps, missing an opportunity to make a significant buck out of Norman and I who were not prepared for the sun making an appearance.

The game itself was pretty good. It was nice to follow a game I did not care that much about as I could relax and enjoy it. Last time I saw the NFL at Wemeberly it was the 49ers v Jaguars. Obviously, it was the Jaguars, so no chance of the 49ers losing, but it was still a little tense. It got very exciting when the Dolpins looked like they would make a forth quarter comeback but sadly it was not to be.

The food was good too. I had the world’s longest hot dog, which itself was covered in pulled pork. I couldn’t finished it.

A good day all around. Thanks to everyone who came to keep me company, especially my dad who drove there and back!

The line between insanity and genius is often wider than you think.