The term “franchise quarterback” is thrown around a lot in the NFL. There is an official meaning: teams can use their franchise tag to keep one key player at the club. However, more often when referring to QBs it is used to label quarterbacks who people expect to be at the teams for a long-run without any enforcement.
But who exactly is a franchise quarterback?
Philip Rivers, for example, is probably not the first person to come to mind when you think about the legendary quarterbacks of the NFL. However, Rivers has now been at the San Diego Chargers for 12 years. Only Tom Brady has been at his current club for longer.
Quarterback tenure in data
Below, I have tabled all of the NFL teams and their starting quarterbacks. I have included the year that they joined the club, and the team’s 2016 record.
Note that this is slightly different to the year they became starting quarterback. Many sat on the bench for the first season, for example. However, as it is a measure of how long the teams have kept them around, tracking it from the time they joined the team makes more sense in this instance.
It also does not include how long they have been in the NFL. Alex Smith, for example, was at the San Francisco 49ers for several years before moving on to the Kansas City Chiefs. Again, this makes more sense for what we are discussing.
The data
| Team | Starting QB | Year joined team | 2016 record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Tom Brady | 2000 | .875 |
| Chargers | Philip Rivers | 2004 | .313 |
| Giants | Eli Manning | 2004 | .688 |
| Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | .688 |
| Packers | Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | .625 |
| Saints | Drew Brees | 2006 | .438 |
| Falcons | Matt Ryan | 2008 | .688 |
| Ravens | Joe Flacco | 2008 | .500 |
| Lions | Matthew Stafford | 2009 | .563 |
| Bears | Jay Cutler | 2009 | .188 |
| Panthers | Cam Newton | 2011 | .375 |
| Bengals | Andy Dalton | 2011 | .438 |
| 49ers | Colin Kaepernick | 2011 | .125 |
| Colts | Andew Luck | 2012 | .500 |
| Seahawks | Russell Wilson | 2012 | .656 |
| Dolphins | Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | .625 |
| Redskins | Kirk Cousins | 2012 | .531 |
| Chiefs | Alex Smith | 2013 | .750 |
| Cardinals | Carson Palmer | 2013 | .569 |
| Raiders | Derek Carr | 2014 | .750 |
| Jaguars | Blake Bortles | 2014 | .188 |
| Titans | Marcus Mariota | 2015 | .563 |
| Bills | Tyrod Taylor | 2015 | .438 |
| Buccaneers | Jameis Winston | 2015 | .563 |
| Jets | Bryce Petty | 2015 | .313 |
| Vikings | Sam Bradford | 2016 | .500 |
| Browns | Robert Griffin III | 2016 | .063 |
| Texans | Brock Osweiler | 2016 | .563 |
| Eagles | Carson Wentz | 2016 | .438 |
| Broncos | Trevor Siemian | 2016 | .563 |
| Rams | Jared Goff | 2016 | .250 |
| Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 2016 | .813 |
Discussion
I was expecting to see some correlation between the length of quarterback tenture and the results of each team. However, this was difficult to fine.
Sure, a lot of the play-off teams have the longest-standing quarterbacks. But then, the Chargers and Saints did not make the playoffs, despite having had the same quarterback for ten years.
Similarly, while there are a lot of rubbish teams with new quarterbacks, there are also the Cowboys, with one of the best records in the NFL, who only replaced Tony Romo, their quarterback since 2003, this year.
Here is the data in a graph:
There is nothing there. As with most of the stats in the NFL it probably suffers from the same critical problem: small sample size. When you only play 16 games per year, and those games only involve 11 minutes of actual play, almost anything can be luck.
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Tags: american football, nfl, quarterback, sport
This entry was posted on Saturday, January 28th, 2017 at 10:17 am and is filed under Sport. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.