COVID-19: The curve starts here?

At first glance, yesterday’s figures do not look too bad. Both Italy and Spain seemed to have stopped shooting up. But the provisional figures from today (Friday) mean that they are both going to set new heights tomorrow.

It’s a bad day for France and the UK, too, who both had record days.

Here is the other big change: I have also started tracking Netherlands. Why? Because Netherlands are sticking hard to the herd immunity strategy. This was mentioned in the UK and, depending on who you believe, was always a side-effect of the plan, or the plan until Johnson’s critics spooked him into adopting the current approach. Tracking Netherlands may provide some evidence as to how effective the lockdowns are.

Let’s look at total deaths.

The first thing to explain: I have now capped this at 60 days, rather than expanding it as the dataset grows. This makes it easier to see the curves in the early days. It does mean we are now missing the past five days from China. But the line is basically flat (they are still having a handful of deaths per day, though).

Second thing: I have included the UK’s provisional figures from today in the report. That makes the graph look much scarier. We are the blue line. Until this point, we could hold out some hope that our line would follow the green line (China) and not the red line (Italy). But at this point, it looks like we are accelerating on “the European trajectory” as we could call it.

And, to state again, the UK is ahead of almost every other country was on day 15. This includes Italy. Spain is the only exception, who are way ahead of everyone. Ignore the single dot from Netherlands, that is erroneous data. Currently, they are roughly in line with other European countries.



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This entry was posted on Friday, March 27th, 2020 at 9:06 pm and is filed under Health & Wellbeing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.